Numbers to Know 9/18/25: Why the Fed Cut Rates & What It Means for Housing
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
The Fed has finally started cutting. The two big questions are: Why? And now what?
I’ll start with the why: the labor market has started showing signs of distress. The August jobs report delivered more bad news, continuing a streak of weak job growth since April.
The overall growth of nonfarm payrolls – the number of employed workers in the country – clearly passed a turning point this spring, as growth as slowed to a crawl.
Moreover, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages just revised away more than HALF of the job growth previously estimated to have happened in the year ending March 2025, wiping out over 900,000 jobs originally thought to have been added in those 12 months.
Historically, as this chart by Jeremy Horpedahl highlights, big negative benchmark revisions, like the preliminary one released this month, have occurred during recessions. And big negative monthly revisions, like last month’s have been more common just before recessions.
That doesn’t mean a recession is around the corner, but it helps explain why the Fed is changing their posture to try to stop a recession before it gets going.
One challenge they’re facing, though, is that they have paused their fight against inflation before it was quite finished: annual inflation stopped falling this spring, and has now re-accelerated to nearly 3%; the more volatile monthly inflation rate is running at 4.7% annualized. Part of the reason the Fed is now willing to cut may be that they view some of this inflation as a transitory, one-time bump from tariffs, that they are willing to look through; but I think the biggest reason is just that the warning sirens in the labor market became too loud to ignore.
Turning to the housing market: the balance of power has swung in buyers’ favor this year, thanks to higher inventory, but it’s now clear that inventory growth passed an inflection point: for the third month in a row, the pace of growth of inventory has come down again. Now it’s down to just 21% growth from August of last year.
At the end of August, there were just under 1.1 million active listings on the market – down slightly from July, while each of the last 3 years saw inventory grow in August. This means buyers are still favored in many markets, but they can’t count on that pendulum to keep swinging further in their favor.
Especially because of the huge news for everyone in the housing market: mortgage rates have fallen to the neighborhood of 6 and an 8th percent, roughly their lowest level since 2022. Investors were anticipating this rate cut by the Fed, and if anything, the fact that the Fed was willing to press ahead with cutting rates, in spite of firmer inflation data, demonstrates their commitment to focus on helping the labor market with easier monetary policy, while setting aside inflation fighting to another day. Maybe more than anything, that change of posture by the Fed is helping to bring mortgage rates low enough that well-qualified borrowers are starting to see a 5-handle without paying any points. There’s no guarantee that the low rates will last – just look at what happened last October, so I’d advise everyone to strike while the iron’s hot. If rates do fall further this winter, well, you can always refi then.
Protect your home’s value today — and make selling easier tomorrow.
As the leaves start to fall and the temps drop, it’s the perfect time to give your home a little extra TLC. Whether you're planning to sell in a few years or stay for the long haul, regular maintenance now saves you headaches (and cash) later. Plus, a well-maintained home makes a huge difference when it comes time to list — and you already know who to call when that day comes 😉.
We’ve put together a simple, proactive Fall Home Maintenance Checklist to help you stay ahead of the game.
✅ Your Fall Home Maintenance Checklist:
-
Clean gutters & downspouts
-
Check roof for missing/damaged shingles
-
Seal windows & doors (goodbye, drafts!)
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Service your heating system
-
Flush your water heater
-
Check smoke & carbon monoxide detectors
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Trim trees & shrubs away from the house
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Drain & store outdoor hoses
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Inspect attic & crawl spaces for pests or moisture
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Touch up exterior paint or caulking
Edit: This Giveaway is now Closed! Stay tuned for more in the coming months.
And, to make things even easier...
🎁 We're giving away a FREE professional home inspection! 🎁
One lucky homeowner will get expert eyes on their property so they know exactly what needs attention — no guesswork, just smart prep for the future.
Enter by filling out the form linked below.
We'll draw a winner October 13th!
This is a great way to get ahead on maintenance AND be extra ready for a future sale — whether that’s next year or five years from now.
We’re always here to help you protect your investment and plan your next move, whenever you're ready. 🍁🏡
Prefer to call or text your entry?
Reach us at SK:206-200-0222 or CH:425-417-6892.
Just send your name and email and let us know you'd like to be entered!
Terms & Conditions:
- Open to legal residents of Washington State who are 18 years of age or older at the time of entry.
- Limit one (1) entry per person for the duration of the giveaway.
- No purchase necessary to enter or win.
- Entries must be submitted via online form, social media comment, email, or phone.
- All entries must be received by October 13th.
- Duplicate entries will be disqualified.
- One (1) winner will receive a free home inspection for a residential property located within King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties.
- Prize is non-transferable and cannot be redeemed for cash.
- Winner will be notified via email, phone, and/or social media DM.
September 2025 with
Hello September!
As the leaves start to fall and the temps drop, it’s the perfect time to give your home a little extra TLC. Whether you're planning to sell in a few years or stay for the long haul, regular maintenance now saves you headaches (and cash) later. We're giving away a FREE Home Inspection to help you know where to start. Details in Our Events section below!
Market Overview:
In the waning days of summer, the local real estate market reflected a mix of shifting prices, easing mortgage rates, and continued annual growth in inventory. Some areas still favored sellers benefiting from demand, while others gave buyers increasing leverage. Together, declining interest rates and higher supply could motivate cautious buyers to re-enter the market this fall.
Our Events
Just a few days remaining! Get your donations in by Thursday 9/18!
From September 2nd –18th, Windermere/East, Inc. is collecting non-perishable food items to support Hopelink. When you donate you can choose whether your contribution goes towards the Washington State University Cougars or University of Washington Huskies in our Apple Cup Food Drive.
Let’s tackle hunger together and show our Cougar or Husky pride while supporting families in our community.
Every item counts. Every team wins. But one team will get bragging rights going into the big game… Which side are you on?
Protect your home’s value today — and make selling easier tomorrow.
We’ve put together a simple, proactive Fall Home Maintenance Checklist to help you stay ahead of the game:
✅ Your Fall Home Maintenance Checklist:
- Clean gutters & downspouts
- Check roof for missing/damaged shingles
- Seal windows & doors (goodbye, drafts!)
- Service your heating system
- Flush your water heater
- Check smoke & carbon monoxide detectors
- Trim trees & shrubs away from the house
- Drain & store outdoor hoses
- Inspect attic & crawl spaces for pests or moisture
- Touch up exterior paint or caulking
And, to make things even easier...
🎁 We're giving away a FREE professional home inspection! 🎁
One lucky homeowner will get expert eyes on their property so they know exactly what needs attention — no guesswork, just smart prep for the future.
Enter by:
- Filling out the quick form in the link below! OR
- Reply to this email with your name & phone number with ‘Enter Me’ in the subject line! OR
- Reach us at SK:206-200-0222 or CH:425-417-6892. Just send your name and email and let us know you'd like to be entered!
Entry closes on October 13th!
This is a great way to get ahead on maintenance AND be extra ready for a future sale — whether that’s next year or five years from now.
We’re always here to help you protect your investment and plan your next move, whenever you're ready. 🍁🏡
This highly anticipated evening of philanthropy and laughter has become one of the must-attend fundraising events of the year, bringing together an audience of 500 Windermere agents, friends, family, clients, and Y supporters. This year's event will feature the witty and bold stand-up comedian, actress, writer, director, producer, and podcaster, Whitney Cummings.
Location: Fremont Studios, 155 N 35th St, Seattle, WA 98103
Date: Friday, November 7, 2025
Time: 5:30 PM: Cocktail Hour & Silent Auction
7:00 PM: Dinner & Entertainment
Attire: Dress to impress
Thanks for e-recycling with us!
We love connecting with clients, family, and friends who stop by to drop things off or donate with us.
If you haven’t been to one of our Free & Easy Eco Events yet, we hope to see you at the next one!
Local Market Update
$990K
MEDIAN SOLD PRICE
100%
OF ORIGINAL LIST PRICE
2.2
MONTHS OF SUPPLY
The regional market is shifting toward equilibrium, and King County reflects the trend: prices remain resilient while more listings and easing mortgage rates create opportunities for buyers and sellers alike, perhaps highlighting a fall season defined by balance rather than extremes.
Seattle & Eastside Community Events
Our Recent Market Activity
WHISPERING HEIGHTS
PENDING SALE
15240 SE 49th Street, Bellevue
3 Beds / 2.5 Baths / 2,140 SQFT
Looking for vendors? Just ask. Whether you need painters, inspectors, contractors, lawn care, or anything else home-related, we'll put you in contact with our people. We're here to make your life easier!
The Windermere Foundation Comedy Night, benefiting the YMCA of Greater Seattle, will take place on November 7, 2025, at Fremont Studios.
This highly anticipated evening of philanthropy and laughter has become one of the must-attend fundraising events of the year, bringing together an audience of 500 Windermere agents, friends, family, clients, and Y supporters.
This year's event will feature the witty and bold stand-up comedian, actress, writer, director, producer, and podcaster, Whitney Cummings.
Location: Fremont Studios – located at 155 N 35th St, Seattle, WA 98103
Date: Friday, November 7, 2025
Time: 5:30 PM: Cocktail Hour & Silent Auction 7:00 PM: Dinner & Entertainment
Attire: Dress to impress
Complimentary valet parking available on site
Second Generation Clients, First Time Homeowners
530 4th Avenue W #405, Seattle WA
1 BED | 1 BATH | 846 SQFT
We’re beyond grateful to have helped our amazing clients purchase their very first home — a beautiful condo in Queen Anne! 💫
This one is extra special — we had the privilege of helping their parents sell their family home and find a new dream home years ago. Being part of multiple generations' homeownership journeys is something we never take for granted. We’re so thankful for the trust of returning clients and their families.
Now, with a beautiful rooftop view, Queen Anne, Kinnear Park, and the Seattle Center just steps away, they’ve truly got the city at their doorstep.
Welcome home! 🌆💙
Rivalry for a Reason - Every Can Counts
The Apple Cup rivalry is heating up early, and this time, it’s for a great cause!
From September 2nd –18th, Windermere/East, Inc. is collecting non-perishable food items to support Hopelink. When you donate you can choose whether your contribution goes towards the Washington State University Cougars or University of Washington Huskies in our Apple Cup Food Drive.
Drop-off Locations: All six Windermere East, Inc. Offices
Bellevue: 700 112th Ave NE, Suite 100, Bellevue, WA 98004
Bellevue West: 150 120th Ave NE, F200, Bellevue, WA 98005
Bellevue South: 14405 SE 36th ST, Suite 100, Bellevue WA 98006
Issaquah: 1810 15th PL NW, Issaquah, WA 98027
Redmond: 7525 166th Ave NE, Suite D210, Redmond, WA 98052
Yarrow Bay: 3933 Lk Wa Blvd NE, Suite 100, Kirkland, WA 98033
Let’s tackle hunger together and show our Cougar or Husky pride while supporting families in our community.
Every item counts. Every team wins. But one team will get bragging rights going into the big game… Which side are you on?
Local Look Western Washington Housing Update 9/8/25
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the August 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.
This summer, the local market has decisively swung in buyers’ favor, as home sellers around Washington have had to contend with both softening demand, and more abundant competing listings. That’s good news for home buyers, but we are seeing fewer of them than we saw last year.
In August, closed sales of residential homes came in 6% below last year’s August total, across the Northwest MLS. Pending sales, which give some signal about next month’s sales, were roughly flat – up just 1% form last year.
On the supply side, we’ve passed an inflection point, where sellers are starting to back away from the market. There were 2% fewer new listings than last August – the first year-over-year decline in new listings since February. The month ended with 31% more active listings than last August, marking a slowdown from the inventory growth of about 36% the last two months. This pullback in supply should put a floor under any potential price decreases that the market shift could bring.
Speaking of which: the steadiest number across the Northwest MLS has been median sale price, which was exactly the same as last August: $665,000. That’s two months in a row of flat annual price changes, but it remains about 5% higher than in 2023.
Now I’ll take a closer look at the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area.
Closed sales dipped by almost 6% from last year. Only Pierce County saw a gain, albeit tiny, from last August.
Median sale prices actually crept upward from last year in all 4 counties: 4% higher in King; 7% higher in Kitsap, 1% higher in Pierce, and 1% higher in Snohomish County.
Looking ahead, pending sales dipped 1% across the region, although Pierce County was again the standout for sales, with 9% more pending sales than last year.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area had 32% more active listings than at the end of August 2024. That continues the moderation of inventory growth we’ve seen since May, when this metric peaked at 45% year-over-year growth. King County especially has rebalanced, down from 50% growth to just 32% active listings growth.
Looking ahead, the key question is whether buyers begin to come off the sidelines in response to these more favorable conditions: they’ve got lots of inventory to choose from, listings that have lingered on the market, and mortgage rates that have dipped from about 7% to closer to 6.5% this summer. For people in a position to buy, this fall is looking like a sweet spot.
The Corner Lot of Nature & Comfort: This Bellevue Home is a Slice of Heaven in the Perfect Neighborhood
4466 146th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA
4 BED | 2.5 BATH | 2,106 SQFT | OFFERED AT $1,650,000
Discover this Northwest Contemporary two-story in coveted Somerset Woods! Soaring vaulted living room with dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace flows to a formal dining room. Updated kitchen with stainless appliances, bay window, and breakfast bar. The kitchen/family room opens to a sunny patio, perfect for summer evenings surrounded by mature landscaping. Stone pathways wind through perennial gardens, in this fully fenced yard on a gorgeous corner lot. Room for all with four bedrooms plus a den upstairs. Fresh paint and carpet make it move-in ready. Zoned for top Bellevue schools—Somerset, Tyee & Newport. Enjoy nearby trails, parks, Newport Library, and South Bellevue Community Center, with I-90 just minutes away for an easy commute.
Garden Heaven
Fully fenced yard with a front gate and stone pathways that lead to the gorgeously landscaped backyard and patio. Perfect for dinner parties, hosting friends or family, or enjoying a warm quiet evening. Pathways extend and meander through the space. Visit with the flowers or sit in the cozy bench nooks throughout.
Grand Entrance
Welcome home! Vaulted ceilings, refinished floors, and a gorgeous floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace greet you as you walk in. There's nothing like coming home to the perfect layout.
An Updated Classic: Spacious and Private with Room to Grow
15240 SE 49th Street, Bellevue, WA
3 BED | 2.5 BATH | 2,140 SQFT | OFFERED AT $1,498,000
Enjoy Northwest living in this two-story classic with a spacious backyard and mature landscaping adjacent to the neighborhood greenbelt. Abundant natural light flows into the home through its bay windows, with sunset views from the large main-level deck and second-floor primary balcony. 3 bedrooms, including an oversized primary suite with walk-in closet, plus a bonus room/office. Updated kitchen with new quartz countertops, glass tile backsplash and gas range. Family room features a gas fireplace and French doors, creating a flexible space for work, play or guests. 2.5 bathrooms, including 2 upstairs bathrooms with new quartz countertops and new showers. New heat pump plus 2 fireplaces (gas and wood). Newer roof (2020) and LVP hardwood floors (2022) throughout. Quiet neighborhood in the stellar Bellevue School District (Spiritridge Elementary, Tillicum MS, Newport HS). Just 4 minutes off I-90.
Spacious Downstairs
Living room, formal dining room, kitchen, breakfast bar, additional dining area, family room, multi-use deck (plus a hot tub). Perfectly connected yet able to be sectioned off for additional seclusion.
Oversized Primary
Retreat to the primary suite oasis, with private sitting area, deck, walk-in closet, and large ensuite. Add in an extra closet to top it all off. Add a wall in the center to create a 4th bedroom if desired.
Numbers to Know 8/21/25: Inventory Up, Prices Down, and Rates Easing
This is the latest in a series of videos with Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker, where he delivers the key economic numbers to follow to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
I’ll start this month by checking in on our most important barometer of the housing market: inventory. Active listings continued to grow in July, but at least nationally, they are still below somewhat below pre-pandemic levels for this time of year.
At the end of July, there were just over 1.1 million active listings on the market – below the 1.23 million on the market in July 2019, but up from 884,000 at this time last year.
That makes for 25% year-over-year growth, which marks another month of deceleration from a peak of 32% annual growth in May. This continues to make this spring look like an inflection point, where inventory is still growing but at an ever-slower pace.
Maybe surprisingly, we didn’t see any deceleration in the flow of new listings in July – it was up 7% year-over-year, or slightly more than June’s 6%. So if inventory growth is slowing, like we just saw, it points to another rising trend this year: de-listings, or expired listings, where sellers are not getting an acceptable offer and just choosing to walk away.
Another sign of sellers being unwilling to bend any further: price reductions. This is the share of active listings where the seller has reduced their asking price. It’s been elevated all year long, but it abruptly stopped rising in July, which is seasonally unusual — so now it’s actually at the exact same share we saw at this time in 2018, 21%, and not far from the share in July 2022.
All in all, the housing market has clearly swung in buyers’ favor, but these signs of an inflection point suggest the momentum in that direction is slowing down.
Turning to the macroeconomy, we have a couple of worrying signals of at least a mild form of macroeconomists’ least favorite condition: stagflation. Starting with the “flation” part, we see that inflation is stubbornly stuck closer to 3% than the Fed’s 2% target.
Shelter inflation has kept cooling in a kind of zigzag pattern, finally approaching 2%.
But the rest of the CPI basket, everything BUT shelter, is once again growing at – just barely – faster than 2% annualized.
And an especially predictive part of the price index, called the sticky price index less shelter, accelerated sharply to almost 3% annual growth.
Turning to the stagnation side of things, the jobs report for July, released on August 1st, came in way below expectations. The most concerning part is that job gains for May and June were revised down radically, almost wiping out the healthy job gains the BLS reported just last month. Month-to-month revisions are a normal part of how the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports payroll gains and losses, and a pattern of sharply negative revisions often heralds the beginning of a recession.
Stagflation presents the Fed with a dilemma: the very weak jobs report would give them reason to cut interest rates, but resurgent inflation might give them pause. Markets are betting on at least one interest rate cut, starting in September, but after that it’s anybody’s guess where the data will guide their next decisions.
For the housing market, though, what’s most important is mortgage rates, and those have already fallen in the wake of the weak jobs report. Rates swooned, down to just over 6.5%, and while they’ve recovered slightly, this range of around 6.6% is still the best we’ve seen in 2025, so I’ll count that as progress. Buyers seem to be set up for another favorable early autumn housing market – more inventory, plenty of price reductions, and at least some mortgage rate relief.
© 2024 Windermere Real Estate
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